Ladies and Gentlemen,

Nothing more exciting in F1 than qualifying in Monaco. Every lap at the absolute limit, the car set-up for one-lap performance (forget race strategy and preparedness), use all the tyres you need to get as close to the front as you can, risk everything and hope not to get caught in traffic.

Red Bull has one car at each end of the starting grid: RIC on pole after a brilliant early flyer in Q3 and VER 22nd and last after stuffing his RB12 into barriers by the super fast pool corners. ROS beat HAM in the intra-team Mercedes rivalry to take a place in the front row. Next was VET albeit half a second slower than 3rd place HAM (“The car is getting worst” he complained), the Ferrari made a huge improvement to top FP3 this morning but when it really matter (Q3) the scarlet cars were struggling, and to make matters worse RAI needed a gearbox replacement and will take a 5-grid position penalty.  HUL put together a fabulous lap to take 5th in front of RAI (he will start 12th) sixth is SAI as he beat teammate KVY in his last try, with PER in between the Toro Rossos, the mexican very frustrated by the traffic jam in the last minutes of QF as he’s got the car to be further up. ALO took the last place, no doubt thanking VER’s driver error for the vacant spot in the shootout.

In CFA competition we tried out all kinds of combinations between the Mercedes, Red Bull plus VET’s Ferrari, but only Carlos and Erik hit the 1-2-3 jackpot. They both will be delighted, those 4 points are huge when you’d been stuck in the basement all season long. Lorenzo collected 2 points and for the rest of us it was a session to better forget.

The grid for tomorrow:

RIC ROS HAM VET HUL  SAI PER KVY ALO BOT (the Williams promoted after RAI’s penalty)

According to Mercedes the pole was there for their drivers to take, but both cars were hampered by fuel pressure issues. Nico was delayed in his garage to start his first run and Lewis had to park his car at pit exit, the 4th time this year the World Champion is hit by mechanical problems. But in reality RIC’s fastest lap was untouchable, full of confidence and superb car control. His superiority became evident in Q2 when in anticipation for the race he set his best time on super-softs, 4th quickest and only 3 tenths behind ROS in ultra-soft (like everybody else), a huge risk that has paid off handsomely because he will control the pace stretching the first pit stop longer than the rest, well, that is if he can hold on to the lead in the short run from the start line to St Devote…

HAM is predicting a boring race - “We need more pit stops, the tyres last too long, this will be a procession…” he said on Thursday. Indeed this will be a one-stopper for the 78 lap-race, start on used ultra-soft and switch to super-soft for the remainder, except RIC of course doing the opposite. The only alternative strategy will come when the inevitable accident and SC appearance will happen, overtaking on track is simply not possible.

The highest pole-position to victory ratio obviously takes place here: 8 of the last 10 GPs (should be 9-to-10 but for Lewis last’s year present to Nico…) Since 1950 only 10 times has the race been won by a driver starting lower than 3rd. Six former Monaco winners are on the grid: ROS (‘13-’14-’15), VET (‘11), BUT (‘09), HAM (‘08), RAI (‘05) & ALO (‘06-’07). Next to ROS only four drivers have ever won three-in-a-row in the principality: Graham Hill, Ayrton Senna & Alain Prost. Nobody has won 4 straight Monaco GPs.

Are we ready?  Will the start of the race ruin (or make good) our hard-planned forecasts? Yes, it will.

Here goes my roll of the dice: RIC HAM ROS VET HUL PER

Have a great race!

Cato